Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 1.003884 1.143409 1.291326 1.459399 1.644650 1.842170 2.068263
2025-02-09 0.775468 0.960789 1.170257 1.422941 1.717801 2.049285 2.448322
2025-02-16 0.610381 0.821531 1.075457 1.399490 1.797858 2.267353 2.857884
2025-02-23 0.466584 0.684653 0.964112 1.341288 1.829090 2.430308 3.217980
2025-03-02 0.346866 0.557908 0.846895 1.259729 1.821042 2.543405 3.527006
2025-03-09 0.274195 0.482257 0.785792 1.242902 1.893242 2.762869 3.987440
2025-03-16 0.213058 0.411498 0.720448 1.210904 1.940252 2.951945 4.422321
2025-03-23 0.178378 0.375552 0.701115 1.242506 2.078878 3.275579 5.061286
2025-03-30 0.136117 0.316984 0.636416 1.195866 2.096884 3.429744 5.474907
2025-04-06 0.107327 0.275933 0.593587 1.177522 2.154481 3.643607 5.985805
2025-04-13 0.083054 0.237183 0.547701 1.147162 2.188650 3.823146 6.455965
2025-04-20 0.068981 0.216451 0.531536 1.165823 2.303253 4.131924 7.135452
2025-04-27 0.056622 0.196800 0.515589 1.185819 2.427106 4.471782 7.895847
2025-05-04 0.045290 0.175848 0.492996 1.190332 2.524726 4.776757 8.621131
2025-05-11 0.036298 0.157866 0.473267 1.197705 2.628004 5.097856 9.390425
2025-05-18 0.027177 0.135246 0.437744 1.167504 2.658928 5.299439 9.978330
2025-05-25 0.019102 0.111402 0.393056 1.110403 2.632304 5.399536 10.404257
2025-06-01 0.014758 0.098742 0.374211 1.107462 2.710240 5.686350 11.155391
2025-06-08 0.010922 0.085411 0.349845 1.087708 2.751906 5.910081 11.809677
2025-06-15 0.009126 0.080442 0.348934 1.124210 2.912405 6.358572 12.870738
2025-06-22 0.006383 0.067792 0.320285 1.086872 2.913105 6.510818 13.421219
2025-06-29 0.004677 0.059278 0.302464 1.074264 2.965257 6.761539 14.155392
2025-07-06 0.003268 0.050736 0.281503 1.049410 2.987178 6.954425 14.792807